1. Okwamanje isimo yemboni ye-photovoltaic (amandla elanga)

1.1 Ukukhula Okusheshayo Kwemakethe Yomhlaba Wonke Ye-Photovoltaic

Eminyakeni yamuva nje, imboni yomhlaba wonke ye-photovoltaic ibone ukukhula okukhulu. Ngokusho kwedatha evela kwi-International Energy Agency (IEA), ngo-2023, amandla amasha omhlaba wonke afakiwe wamandla e-photovoltaic adlula i-350 GW, kanti amandla ahlanganisiwe afakiwe adlula i-1.5 TW. Amazwe nezifunda ezifana ne-China, i-United States, i-Europe, ne-India ziye zaba amandla amakhulu okushayela emakethe ye-photovoltaic.

- IShayina: Njengemakethe enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni ye-photovoltaic yelanga, iShayina yengeze amandla e-photovoltaic elanga angaphezu kuka-200 GW ngo-2023, okwenza ngaphezu kuka-57% wamandla amasha afakiwe emhlabeni wonke. Ukusekelwa kwenqubomgomo kahulumeni, intuthuko yezobuchwepheshe, kanye nokunciphisa izindleko yizinto ezibalulekile eziqhuba intuthuko yemboni ye-photovoltaic yelanga yaseShayina.

- IYurophu: Ithintwe yingxabano phakathi kweRussia ne-Ukraine, iYurophu yasheshisa ukuguquka kwayo kwamandla. Ngo-2023, amandla amasha afakiwe e-solar photovoltaic adlula i-60 GW, okwakhula kakhulu emazweni afana neJalimane, iSpain, neNetherlands.

- I-United States: Ikhuthazwe yi-Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), imakethe ye-solar photovoltaic yase-US yaqhubeka nokukhula, ngomthamo omusha ofakiwe ongaba ngu-40 GW ngo-2023.

- I-India: Uhulumeni waseNdiya ukhuthaza ngamandla ukuthuthukiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo. Ngo-2023, amandla amasha afakiwe e-solar photovoltaic adlula i-20 GW, ngenhloso yokufinyelela ku-500 GW yamandla avuselelekayo afakiwe ngo-2030.

1.2Intuthuko eqhubekayo kubuchwepheshe be-photovoltaic

Ukusungula izinto ezintsha okuqhubekayo kubuchwepheshe be-photovoltaic kuholele ekwandeni kokusebenza kahle kanye nokunciphisa izindleko zokukhiqizwa kukagesi welanga:

- Ubuchwepheshe bebhethri obusebenza kahle kakhulu njenge-PERC, TOPCon, kanye ne-HJT: Amaseli e-PERC (Passivated Emitter kanye neRear Contact) ahlala eyiwona ajwayelekile, kodwa ubuchwepheshe be-TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) kanye ne-HJT (Heterojunction) buyanda kancane kancane isabelo sabo semakethe ngenxa yokusebenza kahle kokuguqulwa kwabo okuphezulu (>24%).

- Amaseli elanga ePerovskite: Njengobuchwepheshe be-photovoltaic besizukulwane esilandelayo, amaseli e-perovskite afinyelele ukusebenza kahle kwelebhu ngaphezu kwama-33% futhi kulindeleke ukuthi asebenze kahle kwezentengiselwano esikhathini esizayo.

- Amamojula amabili kanye nama-tracking mounts: Amamojula amabili angakhuphula ukukhiqizwa kwamandla ngo-10% kuya ku-20%, kuyilapho ama-tracking mounts enza ngcono i-engeli yokukhanya kwelanga, okuthuthukisa ukusebenza kahle kohlelo.

1.3I izindleko zokukhiqizwa kukagesi we-photovoltaic ziyaqhubeka nokwehla

Eminyakeni eyishumi edlule, izindleko zokukhiqizwa kukagesi we-photovoltaic zehle ngaphezu kuka-80%. Ngokusho kwe-IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency), izindleko zikagesi ezilinganisiwe emhlabeni wonke (LCOE) zamandla we-photovoltaic ngo-2023 zehle zaya kumadola aseMelika angu-0.03 - 0.05 nge-kWh, okuphansi kunezo zokukhiqizwa kukagesi wamalahle negesi yemvelo, okwenza kube ngomunye wemithombo yamandla encintisana kakhulu.

1.4 Ukuthuthukiswa okuhlelekile kokugcinwa kwamandla kanye ne-photovoltaic

Ngenxa yemvelo yokukhiqizwa kwamandla e-photovoltaic ngezikhathi ezithile, ukusetshenziswa kwezinhlelo zokugcina amandla (njengamabhethri e-lithium, amabhethri e-sodium-ion, amabhethri okugeleza, njll.) ngokuhambisana sekuyinto evamile. Ngo-2023, amandla amasha okufakwa kwamaphrojekthi okugcina amandla e-photovoltaic kanye ne-energy emhlabeni wonke adlule ku-30 ​​GW, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi kuqhubeke nesilinganiso sokukhula okuphezulu eminyakeni eyishumi ezayo.

2. I ukubaluleka yemboni ye-photovoltaic

2.1 Ukubhekana nesimo sezulu shintsha futhi ukhuthaze imigomo yokungathathi hlangothi kwekhabhoni

Amazwe emhlabeni jikelele asheshisa ukuguquka kwawo kwamandla ukuze kuncishiswe ukukhishwa kwegesi ebamba ukushisa. Amandla elanga, njengengxenye eyinhloko yamandla ahlanzekile, adlala indima ebalulekile ekufezeni umgomo "wokungakhethi hlangothi kwekhabhoni". Ngokusho kweSivumelwano saseParis, ngo-2030, isabelo somhlaba wonke samandla avuselelekayo sidinga ukufinyelela ngaphezu kuka-40%, futhi amandla elanga azoba ngomunye wemithombo yamandla eyinhloko.

2.2 Ukuphepha kwamandla kanye nokuzimela

Imithombo yamandla yendabuko (njengowoyela negesi yemvelo) ithonywa kakhulu yi-geopolitics, kuyilapho izinsiza zamandla elanga zisakazwa kabanzi futhi zinganciphisa ukuthembela emandleni angeniswa kwamanye amazwe. Isibonelo, iYurophu inciphise isidingo sayo segesi yemvelo yaseRussia ngokusebenzisa izitshalo zamandla ze-photovoltaic ezinkulu, ngaleyo ndlela ithuthukisa ukuzimela kwayo kwamandla.

2.3 Ukukhuthaza ukukhula komnotho kanye nokuqashwa kwabantu

Uchungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic luhlanganisa izixhumanisi eziningi ezifana nezinto ze-silicon, ama-wafer e-silicon, amabhethri, amamojula, ama-inverter, ama-bracket, kanye nesitoreji samandla, okudale izigidi zemisebenzi emhlabeni jikelele. Izisebenzi eziqondile embonini ye-photovoltaic yaseShayina zidlula izigidi ezintathu, kanti izimboni ze-photovoltaic eYurophu nase-United States nazo zikhula ngokushesha.

2.4 Ukufakwa kukagesi ezindaweni zasemakhaya kanye nokunciphisa ubumpofu

Emazweni asathuthuka, ama-microgrid e-photovoltaic kanye nezinhlelo zelanga zasekhaya zihlinzeka ngogesi ezindaweni ezikude futhi zithuthukise izimo zokuphila zezakhamuzi. Isibonelo, "i-Solar Home Systems" e-Afrika isize amashumi ezigidi zabantu ukuba babalekele isimo sokungabi nagesi.

3.Isidingo sedivayisi yokuvikela ukukhuphuka (i-SPD) ohlelweni lwe-photovoltaic

3.1 Ukushaywa kombani kanye nezingozi zokuqhuma okukhulu ezibhekene nezinhlelo ze-photovoltaic

Iziteshi zikagesi ze-photovoltaic zivame ukufakwa ezindaweni ezivulekile (njengasezihlane, ophahleni, nasezintabeni), futhi zisengozini enkulu yokushaywa umbani kanye nemiphumela ye-overvoltage. Izingozi eziyinhloko zifaka:

- Ukushaya kombani okuqondile: Ukushaya okuqondile kumamojula noma izisekelo ze-photovoltaic, okubangela umonakalo emishinini.

- Umbani obangelwayo: Ukushaya kwe-electromagnetic okuvela embanini kubangela ama-voltage aphezulu ezintanjeni, kulimaze amadivayisi kagesi afana nama-inverter kanye nabalawuli.

- Ukuguquguquka kwegridi: Ama-overvoltage okusebenza ohlangothini lwegridi (njengezenzo zokushintsha, amaphutha okujikeleza okufushane) angadluliselwa ohlelweni lwe-photovoltaic.

3.2 Umsebenzi Wedivayisi Evikelayo Yokukhuphuka (i-SPD)

Izivikeli zokuqhuma ziyimishini ebalulekile yokuvikela umbani kanye nokuvikela i-overvoltage ezinhlelweni ze-photovoltaic. Imisebenzi yazo eyinhloko ihlanganisa:

- Ukunciphisa ama-overvoltage esikhashana: Ukulawula ama-voltage aphezulu akhiqizwa ukushaya kombani noma ukushintshashintsha kwegridi ngaphakathi kobubanzi obuphephile.

- Ukukhipha imisinga yokuqhuma: Ukuqondisa ngokushesha imisinga eminingi emhlabathini ukuze kuvikelwe imishini esezansi komfula.

- Ukuthuthukisa ukuthembeka kohlelo: Ukunciphisa ukwehluleka kwemishini kanye nesikhathi sokungasebenzi okubangelwa ukushaya kombani noma ukukhuphuka kwamandla.

3.3 Ukusetshenziswa kwe-SPD ezinhlelweni ze-photovoltaic

Ukuvikelwa kokukhuphuka kwezinhlelo ze-photovoltaic kufanele kwakhiwe ngamazinga amaningi:

- Isivikelo ohlangothini lwe-DC (kusukela kumamojula we-photovoltaic kuya ku-inverter):

- Faka i-Type II SPD ekugcineni kokufakwa kwentambo ukuze uvimbele umbani obangelwayo kanye nokugqashuka kwamandla kagesi okusebenza.

- Faka i-Type I + II SPD ekugcineni kokufakwa kwe-DC kwe-inverter ukuze ubhekane nosongo oluhlangene lombani oqondile nowenziwe.

- Isivikelo ohlangothini lwe-AC (kusuka ku-inverter kuya kugridi):

- Faka i-Type II SPD ekugcineni kokukhipha kwe-inverter ukuze uvimbele ukungena kwe-grid-side overvoltage.

- Faka i-Type III SPD ekhabhinethini yokusabalalisa ukuze unikeze isivikelo esinembile semishini ebucayi.

3.4 Amaphuzu abalulekile okukhetha izivikeli zokuqhuma

- Ukulinganisa izinga le-voltage: I-voltage yokusebenza eqhubekayo ephezulu (Uc) ye-SPD kumele ibe phezulu kune-voltage yesistimu (isibonelo, uhlelo lwe-photovoltaic lwe-1000Vdc ludinga i-SPD ene-Uc ≥ 1200V).

- Umthamo wamanje: Umsinga wokukhipha ojwayelekile (In) we-DC side SPD kufanele ube yi-≥ 20kA, kanti umsinga wokukhipha ophakeme (Imax) kufanele ube yi-≥ 40kA.

- Izinga Lokuvikela: Ukufakwa kwangaphandle kumele kuhlangabezane nokuvikelwa kwe-IP65 noma ngaphezulu, okufanelekela izindawo ezinzima.

- Izindinganiso zesitifiketi: Zihambisana ne-IEC 61643-31 (izinga elijwayelekile lama-SPD athile e-photovoltaic) kanye ne-UL 1449 kanye nezinye izitifiketi zomhlaba wonke.

3.5 Izingozi ezingaba khona zokungafaki i-SPD

- Umonakalo wemishini: Amadivayisi kagesi anembile njengama-inverter nezinhlelo zokuqapha asengozini yokulimala okukhulu futhi izindleko zokulungisa ziphezulu.

- Ukulahlekelwa amandla kagesi: Ukushaywa kombani kubangela ukuvalwa kwesistimu, okuthinta inzuzo yokukhiqiza amandla kagesi.

- Ingozi yomlilo: Ugesi ongaphezu kwamandla kagesi ungabangela imililo kagesi, okusongela ukuphepha kwesiteshi sikagesi.

4. Emhlabeni jikelele Amathrendi Emakethe Yomvikeli Wokukhuphuka Kwe-PV

4.1 Ukukhula Kwesidingo Semakethe

Njengoba ukwanda okusheshayo kwamandla okufakwa kwe-photovoltaic, imakethe yabavikeli bokukhuphuka nayo ikhule ngasikhathi sinye. Kulindeleke ukuthi usayizi wemakethe ye-photovoltaic SPD yomhlaba wonke uzodlula amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezimbili ngo-2025, ngesilinganiso sokukhula sonyaka esihlanganisiwe (CAGR) esingu-15%.

4.2 Isiqondiso sokusungula izinto ezintsha kwezobuchwepheshe

- I-SPD ehlakaniphile: Ifakwe imisebenzi yokuqapha yamanje kanye ne-alamu yamaphutha, kanye nokusekela ukusebenza okude.

- Amazinga aphezulu kagesi: Ama-SPD anezilinganiso eziphezulu zamagesi (njenge-1500V) asephenduke ajwayelekile.

- Isikhathi eside sokuphila: Ukusebenzisa izinto ezintsha ezibucayi (njengobuchwepheshe be-zinc oxide composite), okuthuthukisa ukuqina kwama-SPD.

4.3 Inqubomgomo kanye Nokukhuthazwa Okujwayelekile

- Izindinganiso zomhlaba wonke ezifana ne-IEC 62305 (Indinganiso Yokuvikela Umbani) kanye ne-IEC 61643-31 (Indinganiso ye-Photovoltaic SPD) ziyala ukuthi izinhlelo ze-photovoltaic zihlonyiswe ngokuvikelwa kokuqhuma.

- "Izincazelo Zobuchwepheshe Zokuvikelwa Kombani Kweziteshi Zamandla ze-Photovoltaic" (GB/T 32512-2016) eShayina zichaza ngokucacile izidingo zokukhetha nokufaka ze-SPD.

5.Isiphetho: Imboni ye-photovoltaic ayikwazi ukuphila ngaphandle kwezivikelo zokuqhuma

Intuthuko esheshayo yemboni ye-photovoltaic ifake ugqozi oluqinile ekushintsheni kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele. Kodwa-ke, ukushaya kombani kanye nezingozi zokukhuphuka kwamandla akunakunganakwa. Izivikeli zokukhuphuka kwamandla, njengesiqinisekiso esiyinhloko sokusebenza okuphephile kwezinhlelo ze-photovoltaic, zinganciphisa ngempumelelo ingozi yokulimala kwemishini, zithuthukise ukusebenza kahle kokukhiqizwa kwamandla, futhi zandise isikhathi sokuphila kwesistimu. Esikhathini esizayo, ngokukhula okuqhubekayo kokufakwa kwe-photovoltaic kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwamagridi ahlakaniphile, ama-SPD asebenza kahle futhi athembekile kakhulu azoba yizingxenye ezibalulekile zeziteshi zamandla ze-photovoltaic.

Kubatshalizimali be-photovoltaic, izinkampani ze-EPC kanye namaqembu okusebenza nokulungisa, ukukhetha izivikeli zokukhuphuka kwegesi ezisezingeni eliphezulu ezihlangabezana nezindinganiso zomhlaba wonke kuyisinyathelo esibalulekile sokuqinisekisa ukusebenza okuzinzile kwesikhathi eside kwesiteshi sikagesi nokukhulisa imbuyiselo yokutshalwa kwezimali.